Using the model
To access the model click on the button below and select the relevant power pool and country.
The model allows you to vary assumptions for the following input parameters: projections of economic growth, rural and urban electrification targets, fuel prices, and unit costs for investment. Use the slide bars in the input panel to vary each parameter or enter the desired value directly in the box to the right of each bar; the default value is specific to each country. Roll the mouse over the question mark to the right of the parameter name to see the definition and other helpful tips. After entering the parameters, click on the green “Submit” button at the bottom right corner of the panel to calculate the results.
Interpreting the results
The results for least cost expansion of power are found below the input paramenters.
The results present the total annual power spending needs for the chosen country over a decade. The total annual power spending needs for the corresponding power pool are also provided for comparison. Separate results are reported for the trade expansion and trade stagnation scenarios. Spending needs are broken down by generation, transmission and distribution, and distinguish between investment, rehabilitation and variable costs.
Worked example
As an example, we simulate the impact of an increase in the price of oil from the baseline value of $46/bbl to $60/bbl on Nigeria(part of the West Africa Power Pool). All other parameters are left at their default values.
The table below shows the results for the base case. Annual power spending needs for Nigeria are $7.8 billion in the trade expansion scenario, with variable costs (including fuel) of $2.2 billion.
The table below shows the results for the sensitivity analysis of an increase in the price of oil. Annual power spending needs for Nigeria are $8.1 billion for the trade expansion scenario, with variable costs (including fuel) of $2.6 billion. A 30 percent increase in the price of oil therefore adds $0.4 million to the annual fuel bill, leading to a 4 percent increase in Nigeria’s overall annual spending needs for the power sector.